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Taking apart the Radicati predictions 1 by 1

By Andrew Pollack on 01/12/2005 at 08:18 AM EST

Well, the Radicati (don't say Microsoft bought and paid for too loud) Group has predictions out again. Lets take a look at them shall we?

1 We [Radicati] expect IBM Lotus Notes/Domino to continue losing market share to MS Exchange and other players.

Q4 Results aren't out. You can be fired at IBM for leaking specifics like this, especially this close to the public release of financial data to the markets when you can also potentially go to jail for it. In the mean time, Microsoft has failed utterly with Kodiak this year. Their next generation won't even be released in 2005. What could this possibly be based on? Wishful thinking, sure. Also, if your biggest customer is Microsoft, making this prediction can make them happy.

2 Phishing attacks will get worse before they get better.

Ok, there's a tough call. I was thinking of predicting that hackers would just give up grabbing banking data and go home where they could focus on a resolution to the crisis in the middle east, but I suppose I could go along with this one.

3 Blogging will fade away from the corporate world and be considered a consumer tool, no longer a credible source of news.

As so many other bloggers have pointed out, this comes after having been caught astro-turfing (creating fake grass roots support through the use of multiple false identities making statements in support of your cause) and loosing credibility en masse. So, the analyst who lost credibility due to blogs, predicts their demise despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. THIS is who I want to use to make I.T. buying decision this year. I wonder how much they'll charge me for self serving advice?

4 Microsoft will speed up development on the next version of Internet Explorer, and release an update before Longhorn (the current plan is to release the next version of IE with Longhorn in 2006).

Translation: Longhorn still isn't ready, but I.E. is getting its ass kicked in the market place lately, loosing market share at something like 1% per month. To try to stem the tide, Microsoft will release some of what's ready in a new wrapper, hoping that people who like to try new things will like it. Its putting lipstick on a pig if you ask me.

5 Microsoft will enter the anti-virus market in a year when the severity of virus attacks will reach an all time high.

Wow, Radicati makes this prediction almost a full week before Microsoft (her biggest customer, who's marketing people probably have her on speed dial) announces it publically! I'm stunned and amazed.

6 Biometrics will become the latest trend in security systems, for network access, desktop access, and physical building access.

Hmm, millions of dollars have gone toward "Homeland" (read as Fatherland) security dollars to make better locks. We already know that this department loves flashy shows of its work regardless of their impact (just look at T.S.A.), and it has stated publically its interest in biometrics -- and has begun using it extensively in border control situations. The Army is using iris scanning to identify and prevent repeated entry into the same lines in providing aid or voting assistance. The two largest sectors of the largest economy are buying heavily into it then, and Radicati predicts growth. She's really on the ball this time.

7 Hosted Email providers will see strong growth, as more and more companies look to email as a service, considering the rising costs and complexity of in-house systems.

Translation: Microsoft Exchange is dead, the replacement failed, and Just a few days ago, Microsoft DID announce within 90 days Microsoft will announce (here's my prediction) that they're entering the Hosted Email market, providing in house managed email services which promise better spam and virus control as well as fully private corporate mail environments which are virtually separate from each other.

8 Google will introduce an IM client that will do surprisingly well.

Didn't they already say they were doing this? EVERYONE has an IM client now. What does "Surprisingly well" mean? Will companies buy it? At what percentage of the market will they be in the corporate world by 2005? I predict less than 1%.

9 IM Management vendors will continue to be the biggest winners in the IM space, as more and more companies will have a need for better IM security, archiving, and retrieval.

Well, FTC regulations, Healthcare regulations, Homeland security regulations, and lawsuits using IM traffic as part of the case are all becoming more prevalent. It is surprising then, to predict that software companies which make tools to manage and control these communications will do well?

10 In the email archiving and compliance market, we expect consolidation of features in the form of all-in-one appliance solutions.

Translation: Sara bought herself a Barracuda anti-spam device or something similar and really liked it.

There are  - loading -  comments....

My own thoughts on this are...By Jon Johnston on 01/12/2005 at 12:50 PM EST

With regards to anti-virus market, Microsoft put out an "anti-spyware" product,
which is completely different than an antivirus product.

Believe me, I've been buried in security stuff now heavy for about a year....
they're completely different beasts.

Microsoft will enter the anti-virus market at some point. Why? Hey, they want
to take over the world, right? Even if it means killing more of their own
go deeper, young Luke.By Andrew Pollack on 01/12/2005 at 02:33 PM EST
Microsoft has ALSO anounced they're working to release an anti-virus product
shortly. They've also just pushed out with the latest security updates, and
automatic worm remover to kill off a bunch of the worm variants on people's

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