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One of the most unbiased, reliable, and clearly presented sites is FiveThirtyEight.com. That site combines all the polls and produces actual data you can read and interpret for yourself. They don't make predictions with it. They show you where things stand, and what the trend has been.
As you can see from this image, the way the Electoral College plays out, this election is in all likelihood going to go Obama in a landslide of epic proportions.
Why does the media want to show you stats that make it seem closer than it is? Easy. It makes for better television, sells more ads, and increases revenue.
Why do we use the Electoral College anyway?
I know this bugs some people. This mythical idea of the "Popular" vote having nothing to do with the outcome sounds irksome. There are good reasons for it though. Most simply put, power tends to concentrate. If it were not for the electoral college system, rural states would have little or no say in elections on the national scale. The ideas, beliefs, and priorities of big city populations are often very different from those of rural voters. Yes, in a way that means your individual vote in California counts less than mine in Maine -- in terms of as a percentage of its influence on the overall outcome. The question you have to ask is this: Is what's good for the country as a whole, more important? When states had more individual power to govern locally, it was absolutely the case that local votes were more important to most people. Today that may not be the case.
Still, it remains my opinion that limiting the ability for power to concentrate in any one location or group is a good thing. In Maine, we split our electoral votes between out congressional districts. This keeps Maine's E.C. votes important, but gives better representation of the two very different parts of our state. I think this trend will continue.
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the writers of the Constitution, as they didn't really trust the population as
a whole -- maybe they were on to something?), then so is the Senate.
Maybe we should get rid of both...